Canada posted a record job gain last month, along with a decline in the jobless rate and a pick-up in wages, providing the strongest signal yet that the economy is coming out of a six-month slowdown. Other data this week portend a rebound in economic activity, including a strong bounce-back in exports and a surge in housing starts.

Statistics Canada announced this morning that employment rose by a whopping 106,500 in April, the biggest one-month gain since the start of this data series in 1976. This was dramatically above the median forecast of economists of 12,000 net new positions. The Canadian jobless rate fell a tick to 5.7%, near a four-decade low.

This report showed broadly based strength across regions, sectors and provinces. Full-time jobs jumped by 73,000, part-time positions rose as well by 33,600.

On a year-over-year basis, employment grew by 426,000 (+2.3%), with gains in both full-time (+248,000) and part-time (+179,000) work. Over the same period, total hours worked were up 1.3%.

Employment increased in Ontario, Quebec, Alberta, and Prince Edward Island. It declined in New Brunswick and was little changed in the other provinces. Quebec posted an unemployment rate of 4.9%, the lowest in recorded history. Jobs in Alberta gained steam following two months of little change.

Employment gains were spread across several industries: wholesale and retail trade; construction; information, culture and recreation; “other services”; public administration; and agriculture. At the same time, employment decreased in professional, scientific and technical services.

Construction punched above its weight for the first time in many months. Gains were concentrated in Ontario and British Columbia. This likely foreshadows a stronger spring season in existing home sales.
Provincial Unemployment Rates
(% 2019, In Ascending Order)

Province                                      April     March
British Columbia                        4.6            4.7
Quebec                                         4.9            5.2
Manitoba                                     5.2            5.0
Saskatchewan                             5.4            4.9
Ontario                                         6.0            5.9
Alberta                                          6.7            6.9
Nova Scotia                                 6.9            6.2
New Brunswick                          8.0            7.9
Prince Edward Island               8.6            8.9
Newfoundland and Labrador 11.7            11.5

For many months the labour market strength has been the mainstay of the economy. Many had warned as recently as last month that Canada could be headed for recession amid a perfect storm of negative factors — falling oil prices, volatile financial markets, higher interest rates, cooling housing markets and global trade tensions. But many of these elements have begun to dissipate.

Exporters showed across-the-board resiliency in March after shipments tumbled in February. Toronto’s housing market, the country’s largest, is stabilizing after a recent slump. There are also signs consumers continue to spend and borrow, aided in large part by the buoyant labour market, even amid worries about the outlook.

Even wages have strengthened. Pay gains for permanent employees rose to 2.6% year-over-year, the sharpest rise since August. Total hours worked also increased, rising by 1.3% annually in April, up from 0.9% in March. Youth unemployment fell to record lows.

Bottom Line: This very positive report opens up the possibility that the Bank of Canada might take a more hawkish stance at their next meeting. It might well be that a rate hike sometime later this year is no longer off the table. One critical uncertainty, however, is the heightened trade war between the US and China. If the two sides hike tariffs sharply, a possibility given the current sabre rattling, Canada’s economy could once again be hit in the cross-fire.

DR. SHERRY COOPER

Chief Economist, Dominion Lending Centres
Sherry is an award-winning authority on finance and economics with over 30 years of bringing economic insights and clarity to Canadians.

It’s not just because of finances.

As a mortgage broker I receive calls from people who want to know how to qualify for a mortgage. Most of the time it comes down to finances but there are other reasons as well.
Here are the 5 most common reasons why your home mortgage loan application could be denied:

1. Too Much Debt

When home buyers seek a mortgage, the words “debt-to-income ratio” quickly enters into the vocabulary, and it’s not without reason. Too much debt is a red flag to lenders, signifying you may not be able to handle credit responsibly.
Lenders will analyze how much debt you carry and what percentage of your income it takes to pay your debt. Debt ration is just as important as your credit score and payment history.
Two affordability ratios you need to be aware of:
• Rule #1 – GROSS DEBT SERVICE (GDS) Your monthly housing costs are generally not supposed to exceed 32% of your gross monthly income.
• Rule #2 – TOTAL DEBT SERVICE (TDS) Your entire monthly debt payments should not exceed 42% of your gross monthly income.

If you don’t have a good debt to income ratio, don’t give up hope. You have options available including lowering your current debt levels and working with your Dominion Lending Centres Mortgage Broker.

2. Poor Credit History

Some people don’t realize if they are late on their credit card/loan/mortgage payments the lender sends that information to the credit bureaus.
• Late/non payments on your credit report will make your score drop like a rock
• Exceeding your credit card limit, applying for more credit cards/loans will lower your score.
• Bankruptcy or Consumer Proposal will significantly impact your score, and stay on your credit report for up to 7 years.
Your credit history is a great way for a lender to tell whether you’re a risky investment or not. Lenders look not only at your minimum credit score, but also at whether you have a significant amount of late payments on your credit report.
Your Mortgage Broker will run your credit bureau to see if there are any challenges you need to be aware of.

3. Insufficient Income and Assets

With the high price of homes in the Vancouver & Toronto area, sometimes people simply don’t earn enough money to afford: mortgage payments, property taxes and strata fees along with their existing debt (credit cards, loans, lines of credit etc.).
You need to prove your previous 2 years’ income on your taxes with your Notice of Assessments (NOA). This is the summary form that the Federal Government sends back to you after you file your taxes, showing how much you filed for income and if you either owe money or received a refund.
If you can’t provide documentation to prove your income, then you will likely get denied for a home mortgage loan.
Some home buyers will need to provide more money for a down payment (perhaps a gift from their family) or try to purchase a home with suite income. In some cases, home buyers will need to add someone else on title of the home, in order to add their income to the mortgage application.

4. Down Payment is Too Small

A lender looks at the down payment as how much of an investment a buyer will be putting in their future home. Therefore, bigger is always better when it comes a down payment to satisfy your home mortgage loan application. Start saving now.
To qualify for a mortgage in Canada the minimum down payment is 5% for the purchase of an owner-occupied home and 20% for a rental property.
In Canada if you have less than 20% down payment, the federal government dictates that the home buyer must purchase CMHC Mortgage Default Insurance which is calculated as a percentage of the loan and is based on the size of your down payment. The more you borrow the higher percentage you will pay in insurance premiums.
For those with less than 20% down payment, the maximum amortization is 25 years, with more than 20% down payment 30-35 years (depending on the lender).

5. Inadequate Employment History

Most lenders will want to see a consistent employment history of 2 years when applying for a mortgage, because they want to know you’re able to hold down a job long enough to pay back the money they’ve loaned you.
To prove your employment, you will need to prove a Job Letter with salary details.

If you’ve been denied a mortgage, chances are it was because of one of the above five reasons. Don’t be deterred, with a little patience and some work on your end, you can put yourself in a position to get approved the next time you apply.

By Kelly Hudson

A new survey has emerged showing that out of 1,901 owners and would be homeowners, 43% (more than two out of five) Canadians are not confident in their knowledge of the mortgage stress tests—despite them being in place for more than a year now.

We wanted to give you a brief set of notes regarding the guidelines. This is something you can use and reference whether you are a first-time home buyer or looking to refinance underneath these new guidelines. It gives a clear picture of what/how you are impacted as a buyer or someone who is looking to refinance.

Here’s what you need to know about B-20:

The average Canadian’s home purchasing power for any given income bracket will see their borrowing power and/or buying power under these guidelines reduced 15-25%. Here is an example of the impact the rules have on buying a home and refinancing a home.

PURCHASING A NEW HOME

When purchasing a new home with these new guidelines, borrowing power is also restricted. Using the scenario of a dual income family making a combined annual income of $85,000 the borrowing amount would be:

REFINANCING A MORTGAGE

A dual-income family with a combined annual income of $85,000.00. The current value of their home is $700,000. They have a remaining mortgage balance of $415,000 and lenders will refinance to a maximum of 80% LTV. The maximum amount available is: $560,000 minus the existing mortgage gives you $145,000 available in the equity of the home, provided you qualify to borrow it.

Source (TD Canada Trust)

These guidelines have been in place since January 1, 2018 and we are starting to see the full impact of them for both buyers and those looking to refinance. Stats are showing that there is a slowdown in the real estate market, however there is also a heightened struggle for many buyers to now obtain approval under these new guidelines. It’s a difficult situation as the cry for affordable housing is still ongoing as the new guidelines may slow down the market but appear to further decrease the borrowing/buying power of individuals.
Keep in mind, this is just a brief refresher course on the B-20 guidelines. As always, if you have more questions or are looking for more information, we suggest that you reach out to your Dominion Lending Centres mortgage broker to discuss and get a full and detailed look at how it will impact you personally.

By Geoff Lee